- Economy + Internet Trends Outline Page 2
- Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard Page 3
- Stock Market = Often a Leading Indicator of Economic Growth Russia +181% vs. 36-Month Low / India +109% / China +72% / USA (S&P500) +59% Page 4
- Credit Spreads Narrowing = Easier to Borrow Money But Borrowing Cost Still High vs. ‘Normal’ Page 5
- Stock Market Volatility Implies Relatively Stable Outlook Volatility Index (VIX) Has Returned Near ‘Normal’ Page 6
- S&P500 Positive Earnings Estimate Revisions Rising After Largest Cuts in 20 Years (in C2008 / CQ1:09) Page 7
- Technology Sector Shining Relative to Others 19% of S&P500 Market Capitalization vs. 15% in 2008 Page 8
- Intel as Proxy For Technology Spending CQ3:09 Revenue (+17% Q/Q) = Highest CQ3 Sequential Growth in 30+ Years Page 9
- Global Technology Revenue Estimates Imply Recovery…So Far, a 2001 Redux Page 10
- Technology IPO Market 2x Deal Volume…4x Dollar Volume YTD vs. 2008 Page 11
- Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard Page 12
- Domestic GDP + Consumption Trends Becoming Less Bad Page 13
- Global GDP Growth Forecasts Have Turned Positive…Led by China / India Page 14
- Advertising Spending Should Grow in 2010E Based on Regression Analysis Page 15
- Retail Sales + eCommerce Growth Troughed in CQ1:09 Page 16
- Consumer Confidence Rising But Still Well Below ‘Normal’ Page 17
- Manufacturing Returning to ‘Normal’ Page 18
- Risk Low Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Implies Weak Demand Page 19
- Risk New Home Sales Off Historic Lows But Way Below ‘Normal’ Page 20
- Risk Consumer Credit Card Defaults Rising Page 21
- Risk Residential Mortgage Defaults at All-Time Highs & Rising Page 22
- Risk Commercial Mortgage Defaults Rising Page 23
- Risk Unemployment High & Rising – USA at 10% in 9/09 vs. 6% Y/Y Page 24
- Risk Unemployment Peak = Typically Key for Sustainable Economic Turn Page 25
- Risk Debt Levels at Historic Levels & Rising, USA Government Leading Charge Page 26
- Risk USA Income Statement = Expenses Exceed Revenue Entitlement Expenses (Social Security + Medicare…) Going Lots Higher Page 27
- Web 2.0 Summits 6 Years of Internet Trends for John & Tim Page 28
- 8 Key Mobile Internet Themes Page 29
- Key Theme # 1 Mobile Internet Usage Is and Will Be Bigger than Most Think Page 30
- Mobile Internet Next Major Computing Cycle Page 31
- New Computing Cycles Supported by 10x More Devices Opportunities for Semiconductor / Hardware / Software / Services Page 32
- Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch Page 33
- Real-Time Wireless Remote Controls Everywhere Number / Types of Cloud-Based Mobile Connected Devices Growing Rapidly Page 34
- Global 3G Subscribers – Wireless Broadband 2010E Inflection Point, Penetration >20% Page 35
- Location-Based Services Key to Mobile Internet ‘Secret Sauce’ Page 36
- Key Theme # 2 Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on Upside Near Term Page 37
- Momentum Favors Apple iPhone + iTouch Ecosystem Fastest Hardware User Growth in Consumer Tech History Page 38
- Mobile Internet Usage Likely a Leading Indicator of Smartphone Shipments iPhone / Android Usage Share Much Higher than Shipment Share Page 39
- Key Theme #3 Next Generation Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) are Driving Unprecedented Change in Communications + Commerce Page 40
- Facebook Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years Page 41
- Powerful New Publishing / Distribution Platforms Page 42
- New Communications Platforms Facebook = Unified Communication + Multimedia Repository in Your Pocket Page 43
- Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~3x Greater (and Rising) than Desktop Social Networking per Mixi Page 44
- Apple Unshackled Mobile Developers from Carrier Walled Gardens Leveraged 100MM+ iTunes Users Trained to Purchase Digital Goods Apple’s Way Page 45
- ‘Walled Gardens’ Collapsed Nearly Overnight UK Mobile Users Fleeing From Carrier Portal Sites Page 46
- Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch Driving Independent / Overlapping Innovation in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms Page 47
- Key Theme # 4 Mobile in Japan + Desktop Internet Provide Roadmaps for Mobile Growth + Monetization Page 48
- Japan’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shows Growth Potential for eCommerce, Paid Services + Advertising Page 49
- Mobile Commerce Ramping Rapidly in Japan 18% of Rakuten’s CQ1 eCommerce Revenue Derived from Mobile Page 50
- While Vendors / Advertisers Tend to ‘Pay’ on Desktop Internet (via Advertising + eCommerce)… Page 51
- …Users Tend to ‘Pay’ on Mobile Internet (via Premium Services) Page 52
- Key Theme # 5 3G Adoption / Trends Vary by Geography Page 53
- 3G Penetration Inflection Points Vary by Region W. Europe + N. America = 2007–2008, ROW = 2010-2012E Page 54
- Key Theme # 6 Carriers in USA / W. Europe Face Surging Network Demand But Uncertain Economics. Page 55
- Heavy Mobile Data Users Likely to Triple to 1B+ by 2013E Page 56
- AT&T 50x Mobile Data Traffic Increase in Past 3 Years Page 57
- Wi-Fi = Material Portion of USA iPhone Traffic, per AdMob Wi-Fi Providing Some Relief to Challenged 3G Networks Page 58
- Key Theme # 7 Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution Page 59
- Key Theme # 8 Mobile-Related Share Shifts Will Create / Destroy Material Shareholder Wealth Page 60
- Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Timing & Development Patterns of Desktop Internet Market Page 61
- Technology Cycles - Wealth Creation / Destruction New Companies Often Win Big in New Cycles Page 62
- Appendix USA Income Statement, F2000 – F2009E Page 63
- Disclosure Section Page 64
Extracted Text (may have errors)
Global Technology Revenue Estimates Imply Recovery…So Far, a 2001 Redux $600 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, CQ1:96 – CQ4:09E 40% 30% $500 Average Y/Y Growth = 10% 20% $400 10% $300 0% $200 Similar Patterns -10% $100 -20% $ -30% Revenue ($B) Y/Y Growth (%) Note: Revenue / Y/Y Growth / CQ3 / CQ4:09E estimates compiled from 435 publicly traded global technology companies, data as of 10/15/09. Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. 10
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