Risk Unemployment Peak = TypicallyKey for Sustainable Economic Turn S&P 500 Index & U.S. Unemployment Rates, 1928 - 2009 10000 30% 25% 1000 20% 100 15% 10% 10 5% 1 0% 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Recessions S&P 500 Index Price Unemployment Rate Unemployment Peak Note: Unemployment rates from 1928–1943 are annual estimates from John Dunlop and Walter Galenson’s Labor in the Twentieth Century(1978); data unavailable between 1943-1948; Post 1948 unemployment data from BLS, peaks are: 9/49 - 7.9%; 9/54 - 6.1%; 7/58 - 7.5%;5/61 – 7.1%; 8/71 - 6.1%; 5/75 - 9.0%;11/82 - 10.8%; 6/92 - 7.8%; 7/03 - 6.3%. Latest data shows 9/09 unemployment rateat 9.8%, 100 basis points below 11/82 peak. 25 Source: FactSet; Bureau of Labor Statistics. Morgan Stanley Research.
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