- Economy + Internet Trends Outline Page 2
- Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard Page 3
- Stock Market = Often a Leading Indicator of Economic Growth Russia +181% vs. 36-Month Low / India +109% / China +72% / USA (S&P500) +59% Page 4
- Credit Spreads Narrowing = Easier to Borrow Money But Borrowing Cost Still High vs. ‘Normal’ Page 5
- Stock Market Volatility Implies Relatively Stable Outlook Volatility Index (VIX) Has Returned Near ‘Normal’ Page 6
- S&P500 Positive Earnings Estimate Revisions Rising After Largest Cuts in 20 Years (in C2008 / CQ1:09) Page 7
- Technology Sector Shining Relative to Others 19% of S&P500 Market Capitalization vs. 15% in 2008 Page 8
- Intel as Proxy For Technology Spending CQ3:09 Revenue (+17% Q/Q) = Highest CQ3 Sequential Growth in 30+ Years Page 9
- Global Technology Revenue Estimates Imply Recovery…So Far, a 2001 Redux Page 10
- Technology IPO Market 2x Deal Volume…4x Dollar Volume YTD vs. 2008 Page 11
- Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard Page 12
- Domestic GDP + Consumption Trends Becoming Less Bad Page 13
- Global GDP Growth Forecasts Have Turned Positive…Led by China / India Page 14
- Advertising Spending Should Grow in 2010E Based on Regression Analysis Page 15
- Retail Sales + eCommerce Growth Troughed in CQ1:09 Page 16
- Consumer Confidence Rising But Still Well Below ‘Normal’ Page 17
- Manufacturing Returning to ‘Normal’ Page 18
- Risk Low Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Implies Weak Demand Page 19
- Risk New Home Sales Off Historic Lows But Way Below ‘Normal’ Page 20
- Risk Consumer Credit Card Defaults Rising Page 21
- Risk Residential Mortgage Defaults at All-Time Highs & Rising Page 22
- Risk Commercial Mortgage Defaults Rising Page 23
- Risk Unemployment High & Rising – USA at 10% in 9/09 vs. 6% Y/Y Page 24
- Risk Unemployment Peak = Typically Key for Sustainable Economic Turn Page 25
- Risk Debt Levels at Historic Levels & Rising, USA Government Leading Charge Page 26
- Risk USA Income Statement = Expenses Exceed Revenue Entitlement Expenses (Social Security + Medicare…) Going Lots Higher Page 27
- Web 2.0 Summits 6 Years of Internet Trends for John & Tim Page 28
- 8 Key Mobile Internet Themes Page 29
- Key Theme # 1 Mobile Internet Usage Is and Will Be Bigger than Most Think Page 30
- Mobile Internet Next Major Computing Cycle Page 31
- New Computing Cycles Supported by 10x More Devices Opportunities for Semiconductor / Hardware / Software / Services Page 32
- Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch Page 33
- Real-Time Wireless Remote Controls Everywhere Number / Types of Cloud-Based Mobile Connected Devices Growing Rapidly Page 34
- Global 3G Subscribers – Wireless Broadband 2010E Inflection Point, Penetration >20% Page 35
- Location-Based Services Key to Mobile Internet ‘Secret Sauce’ Page 36
- Key Theme # 2 Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on Upside Near Term Page 37
- Momentum Favors Apple iPhone + iTouch Ecosystem Fastest Hardware User Growth in Consumer Tech History Page 38
- Mobile Internet Usage Likely a Leading Indicator of Smartphone Shipments iPhone / Android Usage Share Much Higher than Shipment Share Page 39
- Key Theme #3 Next Generation Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) are Driving Unprecedented Change in Communications + Commerce Page 40
- Facebook Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years Page 41
- Powerful New Publishing / Distribution Platforms Page 42
- New Communications Platforms Facebook = Unified Communication + Multimedia Repository in Your Pocket Page 43
- Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~3x Greater (and Rising) than Desktop Social Networking per Mixi Page 44
- Apple Unshackled Mobile Developers from Carrier Walled Gardens Leveraged 100MM+ iTunes Users Trained to Purchase Digital Goods Apple’s Way Page 45
- ‘Walled Gardens’ Collapsed Nearly Overnight UK Mobile Users Fleeing From Carrier Portal Sites Page 46
- Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch Driving Independent / Overlapping Innovation in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms Page 47
- Key Theme # 4 Mobile in Japan + Desktop Internet Provide Roadmaps for Mobile Growth + Monetization Page 48
- Japan’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shows Growth Potential for eCommerce, Paid Services + Advertising Page 49
- Mobile Commerce Ramping Rapidly in Japan 18% of Rakuten’s CQ1 eCommerce Revenue Derived from Mobile Page 50
- While Vendors / Advertisers Tend to ‘Pay’ on Desktop Internet (via Advertising + eCommerce)… Page 51
- …Users Tend to ‘Pay’ on Mobile Internet (via Premium Services) Page 52
- Key Theme # 5 3G Adoption / Trends Vary by Geography Page 53
- 3G Penetration Inflection Points Vary by Region W. Europe + N. America = 2007–2008, ROW = 2010-2012E Page 54
- Key Theme # 6 Carriers in USA / W. Europe Face Surging Network Demand But Uncertain Economics. Page 55
- Heavy Mobile Data Users Likely to Triple to 1B+ by 2013E Page 56
- AT&T 50x Mobile Data Traffic Increase in Past 3 Years Page 57
- Wi-Fi = Material Portion of USA iPhone Traffic, per AdMob Wi-Fi Providing Some Relief to Challenged 3G Networks Page 58
- Key Theme # 7 Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution Page 59
- Key Theme # 8 Mobile-Related Share Shifts Will Create / Destroy Material Shareholder Wealth Page 60
- Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Timing & Development Patterns of Desktop Internet Market Page 61
- Technology Cycles - Wealth Creation / Destruction New Companies Often Win Big in New Cycles Page 62
- Appendix USA Income Statement, F2000 – F2009E Page 63
- Disclosure Section Page 64
Extracted Text (may have errors)
Technology Cycles - Wealth Creation / Destruction New Companies Often Win Big in New Cycles Mainframe Mini Personal Desktop Internet Mobile Internet Computing Computing Computing Computing Computing 1950s 1960s 1980s 1990s 2000s Winners Winners Winners Winners IBM Digital Equipment Microsoft Google NCR Data General Cisco AOL Control Data HP Intel eBay Sperry Honeywell Apple Yahoo! Honeywell Prime IBM Yahoo! Japan Burroughs Computervision Oracle Amazon.com Wang Labs EMC Tencent Dell Alibaba HP Baidu Compaq Rakuten Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. 62
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